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COVID-19风险洞察|如何准备和管理突如其来的全球风险

2020-04-17 13:15FRM职业发展Peter Bannister

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本文作者:Peter Bannister

来源:GARP
 
此次COVID-19病毒爆发的规模和严重程度震惊了全球。对人类生命的威胁以及保护我们最脆弱群体的需要,迫使我们做出了前所未有的改变,这些改变对我们的工作、交往和日常生活造成了大范围的干扰。
 
公司必须启动业务连续性计划,而且必须立即着手开展。这些计划的目的是在面对一系列可能的紧急情况时保持公司运营,显然,全球大流行病已是一个让许多公司措手不及极其罕见的紧急事件。
 
所有企业的首要任务都是保护员工、客户以及供应链和价值链上的成员。企业不得不在短期内适应超出正常业务范围的情况。
 
对许多市场来说,商业影响首先体现在供应链上,但随着病毒席卷全球,改变了人们日常生活的许多方面,对经济影响也随之越发严重。旅游和酒店行业受到的冲击尤为严重,其他行业也紧随其后。尽管人们对许多行业的需求下降,但对某些行业的需求却飙升,例如超市及日用品零售商面临着巨大的压力——无论是实体店还是在网上的店铺。
 
保持运营
 
Companies working through the crisis have found themselves battling many challenges,such as maintaining a workforce in the face of enforced staff absences.Wherever possible,firms have drawn on plans and processes for remote working,marking a significant shift in the daily routines of their employees.
 
Switching from defunct,coronavirus-infected offices to alternative(back-up)sites is another operational option.A similar approach has been applied,at times,for supply chains:when primary suppliers have not been available,back-up suppliers have been called upon to provide materials.
 
Such business continuity measures are sound practice and work to help preserve at-risk operations during times of crisis.
 
保持联系
 
Crisis communications plans are vital to reassuring and informing employees,customers and other stakeholders.They need to strike the right balance-detailing any changes to business-as-usual while giving advance warning of what is likely to follow.
 
Employees must understand not only the measures that are being taken for their health and safety but also the details of any changes that have to been made–or will be made–to work practices and processes.Moreover,they desire reassurance about their livelihoods.
 
Despite the challenges,communications in times of crisis are central to maintaining customer relationships and brand values.It is therefore important to be prepared with the right spokespeople,messaging,timing and execution.
 
Crucially,companies need to be prepared to pivot,as the pandemic evolves.Extremely rare tail events can escalate at an alarming rate,and plans must be flexible enough to adapt.
 
To decide upon and implement action,many companies now hold a senior leadership daily stand-up meeting,which very well may rise to several meetings per day,as the crisis deepens.
 
Companies that had a comprehensive contingency plan in place,pre-pandemic,have held an advantage,because they have been able to organize these sessions quickly–knowing who should attend,what the responsibilities of varied employees should be and how decisions can be quickly executed.
 
利用数据进行决策
 
In all emergency situations,planning and data play essential roles in maintaining business continuity.The business-continuity plan provides a structure that companies can draw on as they start the potentially long fight back to normality.
 
Data,meanwhile,underpins the expeditious decision-making that must take place.Knowing that reliable data is on-hand can take some of the stress out of crisis handling.The data in question will take many forms,but must include employee locations and contact details and operational data on supply chains,site locations,logistics and more.
 
By making connections in the data,risk managers can see the impact that a pandemic is having today and is likely to have in the future.Proper support can be given to the people,physical assets and third parties that enable key activities,like maintaining stock levels.Risks,and controls for those risks,can then be mapped accordingly.
 
Crisis management strives always to respond effectively,and in a timely way,to minimize negative impact.The goal is to equip the senior team managing the crisis response with the data and tools they need to make informed decisions.
 
Risk management helps provide a foundation for an effective response–one that draws on scenario planning and reliable data.At times of crisis,data-driven decision-making avoids potentially ill-informed action being taken,so that operations can be preserved and business activities can be sustained as much as possible.
 
作者:Peter Bannister
 
Peter Bannister是MetricStream公司GRC项目的高级副总裁。在去年加入MetricStream之前,他在房利美领导了GRC项目。

标签:金融风险,FRM,

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